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Coffee and Markets

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Francis Cianfrocca joins Ben Domenech for the Tuesday, August 18th edition of Coffee & Markets, a series of brief morning podcasts on politics and the marketplace.

Today’s podcast concerns the evolving nature of the housing market, and the government and market incentives to rent or to own, focused on Thomas Sugrue’s latest essay.

Items discussed include:

The Atlantic: Richard Florida on How the Crash Will Reshape America

The Wealthiest Counties in the Country

WSJ: A Nation of Renters, Courtesy of Uncle Sam

Surveys show that Americans buy into our gauzy platitudes about the character-building qualities of home ownership—at least those who still own them. A February Pew survey reported that nine out of 10 homeowners viewed their homes as a “comfort” in their lives. But for millions of Americans at risk of foreclosure, the home has become something else altogether: the source of panic and despair. Those emotions were on full display last week, when an estimated 53,000 people packed the Save the Dream fair at Atlanta’s World Congress Center. Its planners, with the support of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, brought together struggling homeowners, housing counselors, and lenders, including industry giants Bank of America and Citigroup, to renegotiate at-risk mortgages. Georgia’s housing market has been devastated by the current economic crisis—338,411 homes in the Peachtree state went into foreclosure in May and June alone.

Atlanta represents the current housing crisis in microcosm. Since the second quarter of 2006, housing values across the United States have fallen by one third. Over a million homes were lost to foreclosure nationwide in 2008, as homeowners struggled to meet payments. The number of foreclosures reached an all-time record last month—when owners of one in every 355 houses in the country received default or auction notices or were seized by creditors. The collapse in confidence in securitized, high-risk mortgages has also devastated some of the nation’s largest banks and lenders. The home financing giant Fannie Mae alone held an estimated $230 billion in toxic assets. Even if there are signs of hope on the horizon (home prices ticked upward by 0.5% in May and new housing starts rose in June), analysts like Yale’s Robert Shiller expect that housing prices will remain level for the next five years. Many economists, like the Wharton School’s Joseph Gyourko, are beginning to make the case that public policies should encourage renting, or at least put it on a level playing field with home ownership. A June 2009 survey commissioned by the National Foundation for Credit Counseling, found a deep-seated pessimism about home ownership, suggesting that even if renting doesn’t yet have cachet, it’s the only choice left for those who have been burned by the housing market. One third of respondents don’t believe that they will ever be able to own a home. And 42% of those who once purchased a home, but don’t own one now, believe that they’ll never own one again.